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The Credit Crunch

By: Gary Szolosi
Monday, November 26, 2007 11:18 PM

I recently received an email from a friend that has a broker that was the Nation Director for FannieMae before he retired. This man knows more about the lending institutions and processes that they go through than I ever hope to be able to absorb.  My friend sent me an email that his broker had written to a client that couldn’t understand the current market. Some of the things that he mentioned are worth passing on because I certainly did not view things as he does until I read his email.

 

I shall try to condense a rather lengthily email in to a few of the salient points that I thought he brought out. Many of you know that FannieMae became a private company in 1968. FreddieMac followed two years latter. (or close to that) Recently FannieMae reported that they suffered a 1.4 billion dollar loss and Freddie Mac had a 2 billion dollar loss for the third quarter. FrieddieMac warned that it may have to curtail its business if it can not raise fresh capital.

 

Unless you have been in Real Estate a long time you probably don’t remember when lenders had to have money available to lend since there was no secondary market for mortgages. It meant that a bank had to have cash on hand to make a loan. Mortgage money became very tight. It is a scary thought that these two companies could end up with few investors if they don’t clean up their act. They are part of the problem with the loose guidelines and could drive the economy into recession. The jury is still out on that!

 

The need for the secondary market for mortgages is one of the largest financial markets we have and without it we are in trouble. In the event some of you may not understand what they do, here is a brief overview. Both companies package mortgages purchased from original lenders and sell them as mortgage back securities (MBS). These are sold through security dealers. This allows the lenders to sell their mortgages for cash and re-lend the money. Both the companies guarantee the mortgages so the investor doesn’t have to worry about the underlying principal, unless they go out of business. Since these are private companies, their stock has taken a beating and it doesn’t raise confidence for raising capital. On the positive side of the ledger is the fact there is a lot more capital out their trying to find a home. The big question in the upcoming months will be the amount of losses they will incur and how the investors will react. I might add they have been two of the most profitable lending intuitions that don’t lend money to the public. They just buy mortgages.

 

If you were unclear on the why this mortgage crisis was having a negative effect on our business, I hope this helped to clarify it. This is one of the reasons credit has become tighter.

 

At this point I would like to write that here is the solution however, I believe only time and more rigid policy compliance will help but I feel they realize this and that move is under way.

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Comments


Guest

khandni » The Credit Crunch said:

November 27, 2007 3:39 AM
John Rainville
Member Since '06

John Rainville said:

I think that more than anything at this point the problem is political.  The Fed is moving too slow---like they say follow the money. We are mounting huge bills from all the natural disasters and the war that our grandchildrens grandchildren will be paying off.  The economic slowdown can be corrected, but the Feds have to jump in and reconfigure the current system and ease back up on credit requirements.  5% rates do none of "us" any good or our customer if you need to have a 680+ FICO to cash in, it is just accelerating the evaporation of the middle class.  I believe as REALTORS and Real Estate Professionals we need to start a grass roots campaign to get our Legislators off the fence and their butts to do something NOW not after the next election.

November 27, 2007 6:32 AM
Abe Hantout
Member Since '07

Abe Hantout said:

November 27, 2007 8:45 AM
Mipeco Realty, Inc -  Michaela Krestenic, Broker-Owner
Member Since '03

Mipeco Realty, Inc - Michaela Krestenic, Broker-Owner said:

John, I agree with you. If the Fed jumped in to ease up the situation, I'm sure we'd see a lot more confidence on the buyers side and on the investor side as well. It's taking them awfully long time to realize it!

November 27, 2007 9:56 AM
Gary Szolosi
Member Since '03

Gary Szolosi said:

I don't believe the Fed should jump in and do any type bail out. As much as I would like the problem to go away, government bail outs for bad business practices are not solutions.

November 27, 2007 10:10 AM
Mipeco Realty, Inc -  Michaela Krestenic, Broker-Owner
Member Since '03

Mipeco Realty, Inc - Michaela Krestenic, Broker-Owner said:

Gary. I'm not asking for any "bail outs" ... but I do believe the rates are too high.

November 27, 2007 10:17 AM
Gary Szolosi
Member Since '03

Gary Szolosi said:

The problem with another rate reduction is that the dollar may not withstand another reduction because the Euro did not follow our last reduction. There is a disparity in interest rates now, further erosion could hurt the ability to attract capital, as well as be inflationary for the US. As the dollar falls, our cost for imports goes up. With Oil being a big import that could start the rise in cost of everything. This could drive our economy into recession. Not good for an already weak market.

November 27, 2007 10:26 AM
Mike Farmer
Member Since '03

Mike Farmer said:

It's really a double whammy with the marginal borrowers and the tighenting up on jumbo loans.

November 27, 2007 10:51 AM

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Gary Szolosi
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