John - In order to arrive at a probability you need to look at the Law of averages. If you took the number of times this situation arose in numerous trials, the fraction of occurrences of the event will get closer to the probability of the occurrence in one trial. It is possible to quantify it through standard deviations. This would provide you a range above and below the predicted outcome, where the actual results are likely to be.

However, having said that, I would just keep calling and not wait for them to call. “Please stop calling me”, is a good indication that they are lost and a good point to stop the calls. No math involved.

John you have to stop this, you gave me a headache with this one. I try not to tax myself late at night.

1. Possibly no... but probably yes.

2. Possibly yes... but probably no.

;)))))))))

Freda Hoskins, Realtor®

Sandpoint, Idaho

http://www.idahomesnorth.com

If I had to approximate the probability, I would not put anyone on hold when the phone rang......

1. The probability is: "Slim to none," and Slim left town.

2. Slim left town, remember?

I like multiple choice the best...I pick d.) None of the above, but maybe, but can't be too sure.

I'll let you know the answers tomorrow....

If I wanted to hear about approximate mathematics, I'd look in my kids's backpacks, thank you!

Call them and ask "On which house we saw yesterday do you want to make an offer?"

After you leave 3 messages on their voicemail and send them 3 messages by email and get no reply, its time to get the message.  Move on to the next prospect.  Yes, I have been there and have a similar situation now.  They came from another city 3 times to look at the same condo and now have completely disappeared.  No contact at all.  I am checking the property appraiser's site to see if they bought something else, but nothing yet.

In the meantime I closed on 2 other homes where both buyers and sellers were nice, friendly, motivated, and easy to work with and communicate with.  The moral to the story is to not be concerned with the ones who disappear and be thankful for the people who want and use your services.

I agree with Mark......... it is time to move on and focus on the motivated ones....... However, from those who have been in the business a while is there something that we can do at the beginning to have an idea if they are tire kickers or not and save us time and money ......... of course besides qualifying and sometimes gut instinct!!!

Sagine

Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle   :)

John, I know I will go on with my life and not hold my breath and take time to do the math. I was alot better at English anyway. But I am so glad to hear about the new math, I have been doing it that way for years. Ok, not quite 10 but not 5 either so somewhere in between. I can live like that. JK

Veda - I must take issue with your incorrect use of the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle. The Uncertainty Principal deals with measurement and observation. In order to properly apply the principal we would have to have the acts of “observation” and “measurement” defined in quantum term before the questions even make sense. Since that is impossible in this case, the principle is not applicable and quantum mechanics would be an improper application for a solution.

However, if we just utilize the Uncertainty portion we are now cooking with gas.  Since we don’t know why these people have not called back, the solution is not mathematical at all! We just pick up the phone and ask them!

My approximate math draws me to the conclusion of around 27% for your 1st question and 6% for the 2nd question.  When judging these results take into consideration that I'm only taxing my memory for a period of the past 12 months.  If during this 12 month period more than a couple  hundred brain cells died then my answers could be skewed drastically.

The people that I work with do so because they need a realtor.  If it comes down to personalities, I don't ever plan to win them all.  In regards to staying in touch, I follow up depending on their needs.  If there is no sense of urgency then I give them plenty of space, I may follow up in a week or two or a month.  I presently have prospects that are as far off as 13 months.  I have been pleasantly surprised twice this year by contacts that I nearly removed from my database.

I'd say my approximate chances are

1. 5%

2. 25%

Aside from that, I'd say probably 50 - 60% of my buyer contracts are written right the day of the showing, sometimes on the spot if the property is vacant ... so I like that probability much more!

I would say that teaching kids approximate mathematics is a total nonsense ... I have a middleschooler who had it just this past year ... it just messes their minds even more.

Sagine, there are many ways to qualify buyers to see how motivated and financially and emotionally able they are.  The problem is that none of the methods are foolproof and even the best of us get surprised every so often.  I had my prospect completely qualified on all counts and they even came from over 100 miles away 3 times to see the same 4 condos in the same building, then disappeared.  A mystery that will remain unsolved until either they contact me again or they buy using someone else.  

The best way to qualify is to ask many questions - a detailed interview - before finding properties to show.  If possible get financial info or take them to a lender too.  Narrow it down to not more than 5 or 6 properties.  Then while showing keep asking questions - narrow down the possibilities to 1 or 2.  It almost always works.  Don't show too many properties.  Do listen, listen, listen to your buyers.

Thank you Mark....... That is what I do but as you say, even the ones you think would be the best prospects still disappear.....

Sagine

1. 50% / 50% - think possitive - they either will or they wont.

2. Ditto