Market Continues to Slump in the Poughkeepsie, NY Area

Curt Darragh — Fri, 09 May 2008 14:44:00 GMT

Below are the most current market stats for the Dutchess County, NY area. Notice the average sales price dropped over 13%, that number by itself doesn't mean much, but when you look at last months numbers, the decrease was over 8%. There seems to be a pattern emerging and it doesn't look good for sellers who purchased in 2004-2006 during the peak. Up to this point we've been seeing 2-3% decreases in the average selling prices (not bad, some may even say the market needed it), last month it jumped from the 2-3% to over 8%. Many were hoping this was just a statistical hick up, but with this months numbers in that doesn't seem to be the case. So what does all this mean..... well to put it frankly IT'S A BUYERS MARKET. Not news for any of you I'm sure. If you've read a newspaper, turned on the news or logged onto the internet, I'm sure you've seen all the "THE SKY IS FALLING" media frenzy. You know... "The Housing Crisis" or my favorite "The Housing Recession". The reality is this is just part of the process. Real Estate runs in cycles, it goes up and it goes down and we are currently in a down market. But if you go back to April 2002, the average selling price was $237,802, now compare that to April 2008 $345,223. That's a 45% increase in 5 years. As my favorite stock predictor puts it "we're taking a little off the top". I can't predict the future but I believe that 2008 will be the hardest hit in this down market and we'll see the sales prices begin to decrease at a slower rate in early 2009 with the market bottoming out in late 2009 - early 2010. So good news for buyers right.... not so fast. This is an election year, and keeping the economy above water will be front and center, but come December things will change. The dollar has been taking it on the chin for a while now and the Fed can't continue to lower rates without sending our economy into a tailspin. As the dollar weakens the cost of oil increases. As oil/gas increase, inflation will set in. I expect as soon at this election is over you'll see interest rates rise, probably not double digits but likely in the 7-8% range. So if you find right house, don't snooze or you may lose! This year will provide some of the best buying opportunites and rates aren't likely to stay this low for ever.

April 2008 Sales Statistics

SINGLE FAMILY DETACHED                   Apr '07               Mar '08             Apr '08      Yr Chg

Current Closed Sales                            140                      83                  129        -7.9

Current Average Selling Price               398,339              374,227         345,223     -13.3

Current Median Selling Price                 345,000              337,000         310,000      -10.1

Current Average Days on Market             137                     130                 127       -7.3

Available Listings 1st of Month               1849                   1878               1937         4.8

Purchase Offers 1st of Month                 123                     103                 115        -6.5

The Art of The Back Up Offer

Curt Darragh — Fri, 02 May 2008 03:31:00 GMT

Most of my business these days are REO properties and I keep seeing a re-occuring theme. Other agents can't seem to get their buyers to put in back up offers once the bank accepts an offer. It's my experience that the first offer typically falls through. We usually end up closing with the second, third and sometimes fourth buyer. No matter how many times I tell the other agents to put a back up offer, they either don't listen or can't get their buyers to pull the trigger. Then when the first deal falls through, instead of having the first back up offer in place for the bank to respond to, they end up in a bidding war. Now I'm not complaining about having multiple offers, but the agents all seem to get mad... ."why didn't you tell me there were other offers!". BECAUSE THERE WEREN'T ANY UNTIL IT WENT BACK TO ACTIVE!!!!!! If you would just put that back up offer in, you would be in first place when it went back to active and possibly get an accepted offer before any other offers come in. So please put in those back up offers!