Welcome to Reliberation Sign in | Help
in
Latest Most Popular Active Watch List Amigos  
Charleston real estate

The sky is falling. Not!

By: Howard Arnoff
Saturday, August 18, 2007 7:19 AM

Is the mortgage problem as bad as the media seems to make it out to be? While delinquencies on mortgages have increased and foreclosures are rising, the fact is that not every homeowner is late with their mortgage payment and not every house will soon be foreclosed upon.

 

And not every loan is a subprime loan.

 

I noticed a very illustrative and informative chart from Jerry Bowyer writing on National Review Online regarding the size of the subprime mortgage market. It's much smaller than you might think.

 

 

 

Some highlights:

 

"Currently there are about 44 million mortgages in the U.S., and less than 14 percent of them are sub-prime. And only about 13 percent of those are late on payments, with the majority of late payers working through their problems with the banks.

So, all in all, when you work through the details and get down to the number that really matters, only about 0.6 percent of U.S. mortgages are currently in foreclosure. That’s up a hair from roughly 0.5 percent last year. That’s it."


 

Please read the entire article with a very cute Rain Man analogy.

<< Read More at Reliberation.com

Comments

Mike Farmer
Member Since '03

Mike Farmer said:

Exactly. Great post. I have a feeling that sanity will return shortly. I am beginning to think we all love a little panic every once in a while.

August 18, 2007 6:23 AM
Ginny  Lee's Team
Member Since '03

Ginny Lee's Team said:

Howard,

Thank-you, Thank-you, Thank-you ....this is what I keep trying to tell everyone! Can I have permission to use this in my websie blog...I love it!

August 18, 2007 7:25 AM
Candice A Donofrio
Member Since '07

Candice A Donofrio said:

Mike is right as always--the only thing our society is more addicted to than debt is panic! No worries . . .

Good one Howard, right on the moolah!  ;)

August 18, 2007 7:33 AM
Ginny  Lee's Team
Member Since '03

Ginny Lee's Team said:

Howard,

Can we have your permission to share your blog with the media in our town?  This is what we need for them to report...the whole story not just the gloom and doom!  If we all band together to spread the good news we can help get this market back on track!

August 18, 2007 7:56 AM
Mary Welch
Member Since '04

Mary Welch said:

Howard, don't confuse people who want to panic with the facts. That just isn't right. Maybe they were trying to get their heart rate up. Now what?

August 18, 2007 8:23 AM
Sharron and Steve Lobman
Member Since '06

Sharron and Steve Lobman said:

The National Review always presents the "other side" that we don't often hear about. Thanks, Howard!

August 18, 2007 8:39 AM
Howard Arnoff
Member Since '03

Howard Arnoff said:

Thanks to everyone for your comments. I don't mix politics or religion with business but look for and find good and bad information from all viewpoints. Panic and bad news sells, many people do feel good about feeling bad.

Ginny, as to using the blog, you can certainly write a brief comment just as I did and point to the source of the story, it is generally better than sending mine as is. Blog protocol calls for giving credit to the source and not copying the original in its entirety.

August 18, 2007 12:33 PM
Corie Seymour
Member Since '06

Corie Seymour said:

Howard.. I did as you suggested, but put a little credit in for you also. Thanks for thinking of us.

August 18, 2007 1:28 PM
Ginny  Lee's Team
Member Since '03

Ginny Lee's Team said:

Thanks Howard I would always give you credit.

August 18, 2007 2:52 PM
Mipeco Realty, Inc -  Michaela Krestenic, Broker-Owner
Member Since '03

Mipeco Realty, Inc - Michaela Krestenic, Broker-Owner said:

Howard, I just looked at Lonn's post with a similar topic ... his foreclosure numbers were 1.5% ... I like yours even better!!! ... this is what the public should really read!

August 18, 2007 3:22 PM
Howard Arnoff
Member Since '03

Howard Arnoff said:

Thanks for the credit but the real credit always goes to the source of information that you obtain, if you quote someone, take a snippet. make a comment and then link to the original.

As to other numbers, they are likely from other sources and you can have as many statistics as statisticians.  

August 18, 2007 3:57 PM
Gloria Losie
Member Since '06

Gloria Losie said:

Howard:

Great info.  You always have a great uplifting message.  Keep it up.

August 18, 2007 6:48 PM
Sharron and Steve Lobman
Member Since '06

Sharron and Steve Lobman said:

Yes, Howard, I like your honest and modest style!

August 21, 2007 4:37 PM
Sarah Phelps, Broker Asc., ABR
Member Since '04

Sarah Phelps, Broker Asc., ABR said:

Good info, Howard!  Hey, the media has to have something to stir everyone up about, right?  First it's that us Realtors are supposedly making too much on commissions, then it's that there is this massive real estate "bubble" in every market in the entire United States and that all markets are supposedly "over-heated" (yeah, I'm sure Fargo, ND is "on-fire" compared to Miami or Bev Hills - NOT), and now it's that the sky is falling with mortgages & foreclosures, etc.  Maybe the media should worry about justifying their own salaries, etc....just a thought!

August 21, 2007 5:22 PM
Howard Arnoff
Member Since '03

Howard Arnoff said:

Thanks once again; Gloria, there is a glass half full and a glass half empty, obviously, it's perspective.

Sarah, the media has to find news that sells, they need frightening headlines to compete for people's attention. It's not that there aren't problems in the real estate and mortgage business but much of it has nothing to do with real estate and mortgage but with valuation of assets that very wealthy investors have leveraged and are now facing serious declines in value. While home values have not declined to zero, investors who leveraged their investment may have the value of their asset decline to practically nothing rather than the 1, 2 5 or 10% declines we've been hearing about depending upon the area of the country.

Finally, Sharron, thank you but I just can't resist, how is Steve doing in his heels today with school just getting started :)

August 21, 2007 5:40 PM
Sarah Phelps, Broker Asc., ABR
Member Since '04

Sarah Phelps, Broker Asc., ABR said:

Yup, totally agree with you Howard!  It just gets old day after day hearing the media totally overblow a market correction or the foreclosure rate or whatever.  I do feel for some of the investors right now...definitely a tough situation to be in.

August 21, 2007 5:48 PM
Howard Arnoff
Member Since '03

Howard Arnoff said:

Sarah, actually I don't feel for the investors as much as I feel for the borrowers who bought into the American dream without understanding the consequence. The investors knew what they were doing, they just didn't figure it would ever end.

August 21, 2007 5:59 PM
Sarah Phelps, Broker Asc., ABR
Member Since '04

Sarah Phelps, Broker Asc., ABR said:

Yeah that's true about the investors...I guess the party's pretty much over now, huh?

August 21, 2007 6:14 PM
Howard Arnoff
Member Since '03

Howard Arnoff said:

And to clarify, I am not in favor of any government bailout of either the borrowers or investors. It simply encourages more of the same in the future.

August 21, 2007 6:16 PM
Mipeco Realty, Inc -  Michaela Krestenic, Broker-Owner
Member Since '03

Mipeco Realty, Inc - Michaela Krestenic, Broker-Owner said:

The market simply needs to correct itself. Any bailout is going to be just a temporary fix.

We are fortunate that we don't really see too much of price decline around here, the only real problem is in the amount of inventory. Other than prices of foreclosures, the overall prices are stable.

August 21, 2007 6:47 PM
Howard Arnoff
Member Since '03

Howard Arnoff said:

Michaela, I find your statistics very similar to what we are experiencing in the Charleston real estate market, stable pricing despite a glut of inventory.

I think the hardest hit areas are those that had runaway and unsustainable appreciation with lots of speculation and of course those areas that people are moving from because of job losses and poor local economic conditions.

August 22, 2007 8:11 AM

Add a comment

To post a comment you can sign in using a Point2 ID. Sign in.
Don't have a Point2 ID? Join Point2 NLS or post as a guest.

My Blog

Howard Arnoff
Charleston Online Homes

Howard Arnoff
Member Since '03

recent comments
"howard sold my condo in one..."
Howard Arnoff
"downtime time to consider w..."
Howard Arnoff
"mike farmer joins the blood..."
Howard Arnoff
"looking for the mega site o..."
Howard Arnoff
"real estate website provide..."
Howard Arnoff
"news from point2"
Howard Arnoff
"brendan king on inmanblog"
Howard Arnoff
"brendan king on inmanblog"
Howard Arnoff
"politics is reality or is r..."
Howard Arnoff
"brendan king on inmanblog"
Howard Arnoff