I was watching a national news program yesterday morning. They were talking all kinds of numbers indicating that we were heading for a bubble burst. Housing starts were down 16%, Mortgage Rates were on the rise, the former Fed was concerned about a recession...
Fast forward a couple of hours later in the day (after I had shown houses to two buyers in the market and was waiting to meet a third) and I arrived at a house that SHOULD have already been in the MLS as under contract and wasn't (that's a whole 'nother rant!). Anyway, the reason I knew it should have been in the MLS as under contract was because I ran into the appraiser while I was there. I asked him how things were going and he said
"I'm real busy lately".
Hmmm, so what did real busy mean? It meant he had appraised 2 houses that day and was on his way to a third. In addition, he appraised 6 houses the previous day. Keep in mind, this was an appraiser hired by a mortgage company to look at these homes prior to making a loan on them. Since the homes were on the market, we can safely say that he was not appraising for re-fi loans.
So what is the REAL market story? Is it Doom and Gloom or is it the other side of the coin?
My take is this. Real Estate is VERY localized. In most places around the country, we have seen a slow down to a more normal market. Some would see this as a bubble burst, but even the stock market makes corrections!
I think there is reason for concern for a burst in some markets. Those markets would be the following:
1. Where the price of homes has outgained/outpaced the local residents ability to buy. In other words, where home prices have gone up 300% in three years yet the JOB market has only increased wages 12% over those same 3 years.
and
2. Where the JOB market has fallen apart due to industry closings, outsourcing or the like which floods the market with homes for sale because people are moving to find other jobs and the market is flooded with foreclosures because people can not make their normal payments with no job.
So, do you agree with the media's portrayal of the doom and gloom housing market or do you believe in a more localized theory like I have said here?