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Mumbling Out Loud

Doom and Gloom in the housing market...! or ?

By: Ron Tarvin
Sunday, March 04, 2007 9:35 AM

I was watching a national news program yesterday morning.  They were talking all kinds of numbers indicating that we were heading for a bubble burst.  Housing starts were down 16%, Mortgage Rates were on the rise, the former Fed was concerned about a recession...

Fast forward a couple of hours later in the day (after I had shown houses to two buyers in the market and was waiting to meet a third) and I arrived at a house that SHOULD have already been in the MLS as under contract and wasn't (that's a whole 'nother rant!).  Anyway, the reason I knew it should have been in the MLS as under contract was because I ran into the appraiser while I was there.  I asked him how things were going and he said
"I'm real busy lately". 

Hmmm, so what did real busy mean?  It meant he had appraised 2 houses that day and was on his way to a third.  In addition, he appraised 6 houses the previous day. Keep in mind, this was an appraiser hired by a mortgage company to look at these homes prior to making a loan on them.  Since the homes were on the market, we can safely say that he was not appraising for re-fi loans.

 

So what is the REAL market story?  Is it Doom and Gloom or is it the other side of the coin?

My take is this.  Real Estate is VERY localized.  In most places around the country, we have seen a slow down to a more normal market.  Some would see this as a bubble burst, but even the stock market makes corrections!

I think there is reason for concern for a burst in some markets.  Those markets would be the following:

1.  Where the price of homes has outgained/outpaced the local residents ability to buy.  In other words, where home prices have gone up 300% in three years yet the JOB market has only increased wages 12% over those same 3 years.

and

2. Where the JOB market has fallen apart due to industry closings, outsourcing or the like which floods the market with homes for sale because people are moving to find other jobs and the market is flooded with foreclosures because people can not make their normal payments with no job.

 

So, do you agree with the media's portrayal of the doom and gloom housing market or do you believe in a more localized theory like I have said here?

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Comments

Gary Morris
Member Since '07

Gary Morris said:

Ron,

I totally agree with you. In fact, I just posted a rant to my own blog that said basically what you said, (only you said it better). As a real estate agent who has seen double digit interest rates and several market corrections, I get frustrated with all of the "doom and gloom" that I have read and viewed on TV over the past year or so. Like you, I was out yesterday showing a couple of buyers houses and I got a couple more phone calls from potential buyers who wanted to see a couple more of my listings. Showing of my listings have been good, the weather has affected my business more than anything lately.

Anyway, thanks for saying what I said, only better.

Regards and best wishes for a succesful 2007 to all,

Gary Morris

Visit: www.indygm.com

March 4, 2007 10:38 AM
Mike Farmer
Member Since '03

Mike Farmer said:

I agree it is localized. We are seeing a "cooling down" here, but it is still "good". It is unrealistic to expect prices to rise sharply forever. A more reasonable market is good for the avoidance of huge ups and downs. I think we are seeing an adjustment. The fact is that population growth is enough to keep us busy for years.

Some areas get caught in the big swings, some areas lose popularity, some areas benefit from baby-boomer retirement movement, some are hurt by it, some areas are affected negatively by macro-economic shifts as industries change, some are affected positively. Two things seem to be certain, change and house buying.

Even in areas that experience a downturn, the local real estate market will adjust and players who are doing a good job will continue to be successful. In areas where the downturn is not based on fundamentals, but is more more buyer-psychology driven, there are opportunities for investment.

I am an eternal optimist. But, I think it is more than optimism; it is realistic to expect growth in this country. I mean, look around, do things look horrible? I say, NO.

Good post, Ron.

March 4, 2007 10:53 AM
Jairo Rodriguez
Member Since '05

Jairo Rodriguez said:

I also agree with you Mr Ron, usually the media exaggerates about alot things, they need to sale and keep peoples attentions.

I believe is local and personal effort, I guess sometimes we rule our own market.

Good post Chao

March 4, 2007 12:05 PM
Carol Verhelle
Member Since '06

Carol Verhelle said:

I agree with you Ron.  #2 describes Michigan right now.  But don't you think that the media puts a negative spin on the market whenever they can? I believe our business is driven by consumer confidence. The media not only reports what they see, they love to cast shadows of gloom and doom. How do we convince the media to give us a break! Report some of the good stuff, and be optomistic for once!

Carol

March 4, 2007 1:05 PM
Lonn Dugan
Member Since '05

Lonn Dugan said:

The media is always about 6 months behind....  

OK - at least 3 months.

March 4, 2007 1:49 PM
Al Block
Member Since '04

Al Block said:

Reporting from Detroit.  Anybody have a rope and a step ladder?

March 4, 2007 2:22 PM
Karen Lindholm
Member Since '06

Karen Lindholm said:

There's an A** for every seat so to speak. Right now my customers are investors, so we are very active!

March 4, 2007 2:30 PM
Natalie Ginnow
Member Since '06

Natalie Ginnow said:

It is simple. There is,has been, and always will be a need for housing. Sometimes more than others. As long as people need shelter (a basic neccessity) we will have a job. Now whether we can support our own family on what we take home is a whole other story.

March 4, 2007 5:40 PM
Beth Larsen
Member Since '05

Beth Larsen said:

Definitely agree. Real estate always has been VERY local, always will be. That doesn't mean we aren't all affected by the national reporting, but each market area is driven and influenced by different forces.

March 4, 2007 6:16 PM
Lonn Dugan
Member Since '05

Lonn Dugan said:

Al, Don't Do It Buddy.....  Keep feet on the Ground, Move to the southern or western part of the state if you have to.... But leave the ropes and stepladders at home, ok...  

March 4, 2007 6:40 PM
Carol Verhelle
Member Since '06

Carol Verhelle said:

Al,  spring is almost here, green grass, flowers and lots of sun on its way in Michigan! Use that ladder to climb out of the hole that we have been working in and lasoo those buyers with the rope and bring them in!

March 5, 2007 3:19 PM
Jolyn Gismonde
Member Since '04

Jolyn Gismonde said:

Al, I'm in Michigan too and feel your stress. I just keep waiting and hoping for the best. It cant be this slow forever.

March 5, 2007 10:57 PM

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Ron Tarvin
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